Data Diary

Caught up with a colleague who has just spent two weeks drinking coffee with portfolio managers around Australia – he is an economist by trade, it’s a perk of the profession. He noted that the only time he could remember fund managers being this bearish was in the depths of the GFC. Now, one of [...]

First, our thoughts are with all those impacted by the Japanese earthquake – the seeming too-common occurrence of disasters does nothing to diminish their import. The world was already awash with rising risks but this new disaster is likely to become a seminal event in changing people’s attitudes to risk. The magnitude and breadth of [...]

Today’s assignment – to assess what level might represent fair value for Australian equities. It’s a dubious but necessary task. Numbers will say what you want if you apply the thumb screws often enough. So with that caveat, let’s go to the charts. First up, a look at PE ratios through the lens of monthly average [...]

Technical views with Iron Cuticles Some call me a teutonic throwback to the Brother’s Grimm – let them eat iron.  Of course, I’ve been wrong before, most recently about that midnight burrito, and probably will be again.  However, I’m not a perma bear, just seems that way given a bearish bias that has permeated my chart [...]

With the global equities market in bushy tailed mode, it’s been remiss of me not to throw this chart up: A trend reversal in the monthly (higher high and close below the previous months range) has good form as an leading indicator of market direction.  The conclusion – keep out of the carrot patch unless [...]

Iron Cuticles here with some final thoughts for 2009 (coming to you through the intemperate haze of a summer flu). The Australian equities market is at a crossroads – trading in a ever narrower range and refusing to capitulate (as I’d been expecting right about now). Unfortunately, arguments can be made for both another fling [...]

The market is readying for a move – and the odds are mounting that it’s soon.  Following is a daily chart of the XJO – the narrowing in the trading range over the last few days, while the USD has been testing its lows and gold its highs, hints at the struggle to define the [...]

I like the odds of a pullback to around 4000 over the next couple of days – the market remains overbought and momentum has drifted over the last 48 hours. So have put on small XJO put position (strike at 4000 – I hate paying up for volatility at the best of times, at least [...]

Apologies to anyone who didn’t pick it up…the charting software I have been using somehow picked up the All Ordinaries rather than ASX 200 under the code XJO. A little confusing particularly when talking levels…XJO is trading at an approximate 10 point premium to XAO. (Probably should have picked it up earlier – not the [...]

Following the stop devouring surge on Tuesday, the S&P continued to squeeze higher today. Looks like it should test the downtrend. On balance I favour shorting around there, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick move through the trendline to clean the shorts out and start the process of a few longs being established [...]