Data Diary

The following chart throws up some interesting questions about the Chinese growth engine. In this we are looking at the relative performance of the Shanghai Composite as against commodities prices (as broadly mapped by the CRB index): So Chinese equities were first to accelerate out of the GFC lows fired up as they were by [...]

Perhaps it’s a function of being a resident of the deep south (hat-tip to all Tasmanians), but the view from the world’s shoelaces is currently dominated by China and it’s demand for commodities. As we noted in last week’s post, it looks suspiciously like China has loosened its monetary stance in response to the softening economic [...]

China’s latest flash PMI data was not good (via Markit here) – if the trend continues, next month will see China on the wrong side of the ledger: You’d think that weakness in the China growth engine would be reflected in commodities prices – but the charts would suggest otherwise.  Consider that bellweather of commodity [...]

For all those that were thinking it might be safe to get back in the water, Chinese short-dated lending rates have exploded higher today – from Shibor.org: With interbank rates pushing higher across the curve, the screws are being tightened on debt-fuelled construction. Now wonder the Shanghai Composite has broken lower – down 0.9% again [...]

When you think about it, the imminent spike in mining related investment and its impact on Australian GDP is a pretty fair reflection of what has been going on in China for some time. Martin Wolf recently opined on the sustainability of China’s GDP growth without the government sanctioned infrastructure binge (here). It’s the Jim [...]

The Shanghai Composite has taken a hammering of late. There is plenty of room to the downside if this selling is going to develop into something more than a short term correction. Sentiment is clearly fading with ‘accounting irregularities’, rising funding costs for property developers and concerns about bank capital adequacy all being recent features [...]

A week of other commitments that have deprived me of this blogs warm embrace…and the US market is still playing to the same script – USD lower, equities higher. Still looks like a final thrust higher to my jaundiced eyes, which would be consistent I guess with the Fed spending its remaining QE pennies. Divergences are [...]

Are we really about to enter the currency crisis phase of the rolling seraglio formerly known as the GFC? If you are buying gold, oil and a raft of commodity classes at current levels, you probably subscribe to the theory that the globe’s reserve currency has already passed its expiry date.  While it’s not beyond [...]

We’ve been noting how breadth continues to contract on the NYSE – as the market seeks to overtake the most recent highs, it is once again being driven by fewer and fewer leaders (for background on breadth see here). To my way of thinking, weakening breadth is a reflection of progressively more companies bumping up against [...]