Data Diary

Reflecting on the following chart via Pragmatic Capitalism (here) – got to thinking about how the same might apply to Australia: So herewith is the log chart of the All Ordinaries price history since 1875: Now you might argue about the choice of market cycles – I admit to liking the symmetry of ~27 year [...]

Nothing like being trapped in a tin can 10,000 metres above sea level to get a little perspective on things.  Couple that with the a month long break, and here’s hoping that it’ll be a little easier to ignore the trees… When we last looked (here), the stage was set for a relief rally into [...]

It’s interesting that financials and consumer discretionary – the sectors that were most richly rewarded with government support through the crisis – are outperforming the broader index.  Still with the financials about to cycle back to the 1950′s (cardigans and crewcuts) and the credit revaluation trade a receding hairline, it’s hard to see this outperformance [...]

With price action getting downright nasty, thought we might try to put it into the context of recent history. When Lehman’s officially waved the flag on 15 September 2008, with the market already well below its highs, it was the catalyst for the wholesale dumping of stock – whether it was leveraged equities or otherwise. [...]

Risk appetite has beat a hasty retreat over recent weeks (it’s come a long way – see our recent snapshots here and here).  It’s unlikely to push further without some fresh impetus. Suggest then that a pause is likely with good odds of some sort of retracement. 1) Elevated volumes are generally followed by a period of [...]

Another chart for the annals – this one from Sitka Pacific Capital Management (see the original article here).

While we are waiting for the dust to settle…the stalling of the rally in equities markets, the continued pressure on the euro, and the new highs in gold, all suggest that this bailout package is different from it’s US forebears.  Why is my $1 trillion different from yours? United States of America is a single [...]

It’s been notable that volume has been stepping higher on the S&P500: Volume peaks tend to be associated with short to medium bottoms in the index.  Similarly, troughs in volume often signal some kind of top.  Or course this relationship doesn’t always hold – a wicked example being that 2008 price avalanche where volume peaked [...]

China’s stockmarkets have been lagging those of the US for some time: Worse still they have now slipped below the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.  Wonder how long this state of affairs can be maintained before some steam comes out of the commodities markets?

I’m a fan of John Taylor at FX Concepts – if only for the clarity of his calls.  Zero Hedge has some of his recent thoughts (here) including these gems “2011 will be worse than 2008″ and “there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading [...]