Data Diary

From the ABS (here): The latest ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 1.1% in April 2011, seasonally adjusted, following a fall of 0.3% the previous month. Turnover rose in Food retailing (0.9%), Other retailing (2.0%), Department stores (3.6%), Household goods retailing (0.7%) and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.2%). Turnover [...]

The latest house price index data (here) has at last confirmed that the laws of physics do apply to the Australian housing market: While the commodity boom may have benefited the few that work in the industry, the balance of the Australian economy has been struggling along with tightening credit and rising consumer prices. With [...]

Turning to Australian consumer spending, the data suggests that the recent fall in consumer confidence (here) is not an outlier event. So while new motor vehicle sales have recovered the magic million mark (from the ABS here): The trend is sales volumes has turned decidely southward: Perhaps more poignant for the state of the consumer [...]

If you subscribe to the view that Australia’s household leverage has peaked, then it is hard to believe that our discretionary spending will match the performance of recent years.  Okay, it’s the glass half full view of the world but really look at the annual growth of retail sales since 1982: The ‘low growth’ period [...]

Just hadn’t got round to uploading the chart – so here it is:

Australian retail sales for March 2010 also confirm a slowing thirst for spending (see the original release from the ABS here): With the assistance of last year’s taxpayer funded handouts a hazy hangover memory, and the recent cold-light-of-day interest rate rises a near term reality, it’s to be expected that retail sales would be tailing [...]

Playing catch-up – so for posterity (well, more for my records) following are the ABS data on Australian retail sales released last week (you can find the ABS release here). The retail sector is clearly lagging the feel-good story emanating from the real estate industry. In my view, the incremental increases in household debt will [...]

Also, released today were Retail Sales for January. Following is the summary from the ABS: CURRENT PRICES The trend estimate increased 0.4% in January 2010. This follows a 0.4% increase in December 2009 and a 0.4% increase in November 2009. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 1.2% in January 2010. This follows a 0.9% decrease in [...]

Australian Dec 2010 retail sales were soft. With the effects of the cash handouts fading, expect retail sales to continue to weaken as we move deep into the new year.