Data Diary

Latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators are out (here) – with the June data slipping into the red indicating according to the OECD “a possible peak in expansion”. ‘Possible peak’?  Looks pretty much like it is a near certainty.  With Europe yet to feel the effects of the communal belt tightening and the US struggling to [...]

The OECD composite leading indicators (original release here) continue to roll over.  The broadest of the indicators, that takes in the OECD plus six non-OECD majors, is still on the expansion side of the ledger – just: Economic growth was held up by the (slowing) recoveries in the US, Japan and Germany.  Peaks are looking [...]

The OECD released its CLI for March last night (you can find it here).  In the OECD’s words, “the OECD CLI for March 2010 point to a slowdown in the pace of economic activity”.  The slowdown is being lead by China that has been contracting since January. China is creating a drag on Asia and emerging [...]

It’s a little slow in the release but the OECD CLI remains a handy reference as a global growth barometer.  The April communique covering the month of February was released last night (you can find it here). The recent trends are unchanged – global expansion is still relatively strong but momentum is slowing. The major [...]

David Rosenberg provides a brief “How to use the ECRI leading index for asset allocation” guide in this mornings Breakfast with Dave.  For ease of reference, following is the relevant bit, but you can always subscribe to his newsletters at Gluskin Shelf: This is a handy indicator for asset allocation and sector rotation.  For example,when [...]

Conflicting signals from the OECD’s leading indicators for January. While the aggregate indicator for the OECD plus six continues to lose momentum, the Asian majors are seeking a sustainable growth level post the surge of 2009.. The odds of the developed world of at least flattening it’s growth trajectory over the next 6 months are [...]

Seems like Morgan Stanley’s European Equity Strategy team is worried that all the good news has both happened… and is priced in. See the Business Insider’s summary “Morgan Stanley: Here’s Two Economic Indicators Flashing A Huge SELL Signal“. As we looked at back in October – economic leading indicators can be useful in gauging the [...]

December OECD composite leading indicators show the global recovery is continuing though at a progressively slower rate. The strength is coming from the US and parts of Europe. China is looking more shaky – no wonder commodities have taken a hit.

The OECD composite leading indicator as a signal for the Australian equities market

OECD Composite Leading Indicators for Australia, China and the OECD plus six