Data Diary

The following chart throws up some interesting questions about the Chinese growth engine. In this we are looking at the relative performance of the Shanghai Composite as against commodities prices (as broadly mapped by the CRB index): So Chinese equities were first to accelerate out of the GFC lows fired up as they were by [...]

Global industrial production is set to climb again – as it waddles after those cardigan wearing purchasing managers: The US has been leading the way – from the JP Morgan Global PMI Report report (here) The US PMI rose to an eighty-month high in January, while its counterpart in the Eurozone hit a nine-month peak. [...]

A colleague in the fresh produce trade remarked at the weekend that exports out of the US have surged over recent months. Typically, US producers sell most of their product to the domestic market, but with the US$ plunging relative to Asia, these guys are finding better prices offshore.  If the Fed’s strategy was to [...]

Not quite a random walk, more like the one lurch forward, two staggers back, that is how the market has greeted the ‘news’ that China will be taking the yuan to a crawling peg.  First, risk markets rallied as we all looked inquisitively at each other and asked ‘isn’t this what we wanted?’.  Then with [...]

This time it is different.  No really.  While the equities markets have been rifling lower and credit spreads are wider – absolute yields have actually been falling.  As opposed to the ‘last time’, when mass liquidation of credit leverage pushed yields to extremes, higher grade bonds of all ilks have caught a bid.  You could [...]

China’s stockmarkets have been lagging those of the US for some time: Worse still they have now slipped below the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.  Wonder how long this state of affairs can be maintained before some steam comes out of the commodities markets?

I’m as prone to selection bias as the next man – so keep that in mind while we try to discern where commodities are heading in the near term. Market indicators 1) The USD is rallying – and the CRB has rolled over With at least the juiciest dishes on the commodities smorgasbord priced in [...]

The Baltic Dry Index, CRB index and Shanghai equities market have all turned up. This bounce could well have legs…

Down here in the mini-sub, the hunt is still on for a worthy leading indicator for the ASX200 material sector. Intuitively, I have assumed that by rolling together measures of price, volume and risk we should get something pretty interesting.  Hence the following: It’s a chart of XMJ (ASX200 Materials Sector) mapped against index that [...]

Iron cuticles reporting for duty… Leadership in the Australian market’s rally since March 2009 has come from financials and the materials sectors.  It was notable then that the recent high in the All Ordinaries was not matched by the financials. XXJ was rejected off the longer term downtrend from the September 2007 peak while it [...]