Data Diary

Sometime back we suggested that the PE ratio for the equities market was likely to fall relative to recent decades.  Based on some spurious pointing at historical charts, we came up with an expectation that the average PE ratio might be more like 12x (see here).  On our numbers that suggested ‘fair value’ was around [...]

I’d like to be able to clone the Humble Student of the Market’s ability to see the market for what it is.  His latest thoughts on going long the Australian market against the Canadian are well worth a read (you will find it here). It’s an incestuous world we live in these days, so in [...]

I started this post some months ago with the intention of digging deeper into our Australian banks reliance on the international capital markets.  In particular wanted to get an understanding of what the impact of the government guarantee funding facility would be.  I’ve been dragging my feet, so in an effort to get it out [...]

Another chart for the annals – this one from Sitka Pacific Capital Management (see the original article here).

Following from the previous post (here) that suggested that ‘fair value’ for the All Ordinaries is around 4250 – just to clarify, I’m using the term ‘fair value’ as an indicator of where I’d be willing to overweight equities. Not sure how this compares to a forecast from a broker calling for 5500 for the [...]

I like it when someone makes it easy – thanks to the Big Picture (here) – I’m just printing it here to make it easy for me to find later:

Today’s assignment – to assess what level might represent fair value for Australian equities. It’s a dubious but necessary task. Numbers will say what you want if you apply the thumb screws often enough. So with that caveat, let’s go to the charts. First up, a look at PE ratios through the lens of monthly average [...]

A quick update on the CBOE put/call ratio that is trading at levels that typically suggests stormy waters ahead for the equities market. With volumes in both puts and calls on the up post the Christmas lull, the market is betting on increased volatility. But as we can see in the following breakdown, it is [...]

Funny how any given data set is open to interpretation. I’ve been following the CBOE Put to Call ratio particularly closely of late (last post here) as I have been concerned there may be a change of trend in the wind.  Vix and More made the point yesterday that the ratio is not signalling a [...]

We do not have the equivalent of the CBOE put/call ratio in Australia.  Pity.  It’s a pretty interesting indicator of the market’s mood.  Consider the following chart that highlights the 10 day moving average of the put/call ratio. Some observations of this errant nave: 1) Has been a relatively reliable indicator of turns in the [...]