Data Diary

Welcome to 2012 – and to celebrate its arrival the World Economic Forum has published its annual risk report (here). The report presents the results of a survey where 469 experts ranked 50 risks to our world – click on the diagram to be taken to the interactive chart. It’s notable that the largest risks [...]

The OECD’s latest leading indicators present a sombre image of world growth – perhaps the best that can be said of them is that China looks to be shaking off the malaise that accompanied its recent attempts to rein in credit growth.             Looking first to the broadest of measures, [...]

A table in Philip Soos 57-page epic (via the Third Wave Group here) on the Australian housing market recently caught my eye. In this, Phillip is having a stab at estimating the likely impact of a generalised downturn in house prices. His basic premise is that a negative wealth effect will drive consumption lower – [...]

From the OECD’s latest release of their composite leading indicators: Composite leading indicators (CLIs)…point to a mild loss of growth momentum in most major economies for April 2011. A notable exception is the United States which continues expanding relative to trend, albeit more moderately than in last month’s assessment. The CLIs point to a stable pace of [...]

The cascade of unruly data points must be beginning to worry those in charge with steering the Australian economy. Today’s releases – housing finance (here) and new motor vehicle sales (here) – both confirm that middle Australia is feeling the pinch. First to the good news – the absolute number of home loans was up [...]

OECD leading indicators were released Monday (here) and are signalling that global growth remains on the front foot – though it’s likely to be peaking by mid-year: In the US, growth was heading towards a cyclical high relative to trend, but again looks likely to peak over the next three months: Interestingly growth out of [...]

Quick update – it’s just charts – leave the tarot reading to y’all

The unwind of the carry trade has been in full swing for a couple of days now. It’s probably been accompanied by repatriation of capital by Japanese investment trusts and the like – time will tell. Given the bounce in USDYEN from this morning’s lows – without the aid of intervention – it’s likely that [...]

OECD released their leading indicators for March (here). The CLIs for Germany, Japan, and the United States continue pointing to robust expansion relative to trend. Signs of regained growth momentum characterise the CLIs for France and Canada. The CLI for the United Kingdom points to a slow but stable pace of expansion. The CLI for Italy continues [...]

The call from the crows nest is that the wet sails are working and the US economy is picking up some speed.  The latest OECD composite leading indicators confirm the trend: And even, the Euro area is taking heart – at least in aggregate: But it’s the emerging markets that are struggling against the liquidity [...]