Charts and other instruments of torture
With the global equities market in bushy tailed mode, it’s been remiss of me not to throw this chart up: A trend reversal in the monthly (higher high and close below the previous months range) has good form as an leading indicator of market direction. The conclusion – keep out of the carrot patch unless [...]
Iron cuticles reporting for duty… Leadership in the Australian market’s rally since March 2009 has come from financials and the materials sectors. It was notable then that the recent high in the All Ordinaries was not matched by the financials. XXJ was rejected off the longer term downtrend from the September 2007 peak while it [...]
We looked at this long term chart of the All Ordinaries against its 50 and 200 day average back in September (A history of mean reversion). At the time, the point was that it was rare for the gap between the 200 day moving average and the index to be above 10%. Well, true to [...]
Iron Cuticles here with some final thoughts for 2009 (coming to you through the intemperate haze of a summer flu). The Australian equities market is at a crossroads – trading in a ever narrower range and refusing to capitulate (as I’d been expecting right about now). Unfortunately, arguments can be made for both another fling [...]
Been thinking about how our market has performed when expressed in US dollars and then versus gold and other commodities. If the ZIRPee is to remain the drink of choice of central bankers around the globe, supplemented by shots of the local currency as required, then any real stores of value are likely to be [...]
When I read this post at Zero Hedge about another bloody divergence, the binding snapped on my filofax. Memories of being stalked in our school library by a redhead with sweaty palms and the only copy of the Book of Lists swirled over my coffee. I determined to do something about it. Following then is [...]
Back in mid-October we looked at Goldman’s earnings forecasts for the S&P500 for 2010 (Giving Lemmings bad name) which were $75/share (or $81/share pre-write-offs and provisions). At 1100, this equates to a multiple for the market of 13x to 14x. So it is notable that the key driver of Goldman’s forecasts has been the primary [...]
Iron Cuticles here. My comrade PazzoMundo suggested that, what with the recent flip-flap in the markets, readers might be interested as to my thoughts. Why bother I say. You are all able to think for yourselves. So I give you just one chart: Flit forward to today. XJO has closed at 4762. Expect another test [...]
This seems to be the message emanating from the institutional pundits…for some quick examples see here and here and here and here. What sort of strategy is this? Is it a recommendation to buy or to hold? Given December has already started, doesn’t leave much room for an oversized year end rally. Fund managers have [...]
Regular readers will know that Cuticles of Iron (not sure my therapist would be happy with my alter ego having an alter ago but there you go) has been counting the waves looking for a wave (iii) of 3 to begin. Today could well mark that day. (For a quick history check here and here). [...]
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