Posts related to Technical analysis
Charts and other instruments of torture
25 July 2011 - The combover and market breadth
Much like my hairline, the number of stocks covering the bald patch in US equities continues to thin… Last time we looked at this chart (1st June here), equities were about to dip lower. Now with the European mess behind us, equities have all but recovered that lost ground. It’s just that this has been [...]
11 March 2011 - Market breadth continues its slide
The following chart is a thing of beauty… Okay, it’s no Swan Lake – but following on from our earlier note (here), it is uncanny how market breadth continues its graceful exit stage right. If the augers are keeping it real, then the current market weakness has a little further to run.
22 February 2011 - A long term view of Australian equities
And to place the previous post in context, every six months or so, we step back to have a really long term look at the Australian equities market. From the market low in 1884, the market added around 5% per annum – the blue line above illustrates what straight line growth of 5.2% per annum [...]
22 February 2011 - Australian equities at a short term decision point
With earnings season almost done, the signs are that the Australian economy’s trek towards deleveraging remains firmly on track. So while the fundamentals continue to eat away at the current valuations, the market pushes tenaciously onwards. It’s curious but as I flick through various industry group charts, there appears to be funds flow supporting property, [...]
20 January 2011 - Equities running out of breadth?
Now isn’t that is a tagline to make an old media mogul smile – if they were of a mind to do so of course… Consider the following chart of the NYSE McClellan Summation Index. For the uninitiated, the summation index is a measure of market breadth. It looks at the number of stocks going up [...]
20 September 2010 - Forecasting the S&P500 using the VIX
McClellan Financial Publications had an interesting analysis last week (here) that looked at “Tracking the VIX response to Price Moves” in the S&P500. A key conclusion of the analysis was that divergences between the two indexes can signal turning points in the S&P500. The concept seemed a good one – worthy of further investigation. However, rather [...]
17 August 2010 - Australian equities – in the bear zone
Reflecting on the following chart via Pragmatic Capitalism (here) – got to thinking about how the same might apply to Australia: So herewith is the log chart of the All Ordinaries price history since 1875: Now you might argue about the choice of market cycles – I admit to liking the symmetry of ~27 year [...]
03 June 2010 - S&P500 by sectors – financials and consumer discretionary outperform?
It’s interesting that financials and consumer discretionary – the sectors that were most richly rewarded with government support through the crisis – are outperforming the broader index. Still with the financials about to cycle back to the 1950′s (cardigans and crewcuts) and the credit revaluation trade a receding hairline, it’s hard to see this outperformance [...]
07 May 2010 - Thinking about buying the dip? Define dip.
The current selloff has the market staggering. Unlike previous tick-downs in the rally since March 2009, fear is making a comeback. Our measures of relative risk appetite have broken out. It’s reason to tread carefully cause until we get some signs of normalisation, further downside is more likely than not: The evidence that it’s a [...]
29 April 2010 - Volume rising on the S&P – what is it telling us?
It’s been notable that volume has been stepping higher on the S&P500: Volume peaks tend to be associated with short to medium bottoms in the index. Similarly, troughs in volume often signal some kind of top. Or course this relationship doesn’t always hold – a wicked example being that 2008 price avalanche where volume peaked [...]