Charts and other instruments of torture
Much like my hairline, the number of stocks covering the bald patch in US equities continues to thin… Last time we looked at this chart (1st June here), equities were about to dip lower. Now with the European mess behind us, equities have all but recovered that lost ground. It’s just that this has been [...]
The following chart is a thing of beauty… Okay, it’s no Swan Lake – but following on from our earlier note (here), it is uncanny how market breadth continues its graceful exit stage right. If the augers are keeping it real, then the current market weakness has a little further to run.
And to place the previous post in context, every six months or so, we step back to have a really long term look at the Australian equities market. From the market low in 1884, the market added around 5% per annum – the blue line above illustrates what straight line growth of 5.2% per annum [...]
With earnings season almost done, the signs are that the Australian economy’s trek towards deleveraging remains firmly on track. So while the fundamentals continue to eat away at the current valuations, the market pushes tenaciously onwards. It’s curious but as I flick through various industry group charts, there appears to be funds flow supporting property, [...]
Now isn’t that is a tagline to make an old media mogul smile – if they were of a mind to do so of course… Consider the following chart of the NYSE McClellan Summation Index. For the uninitiated, the summation index is a measure of market breadth. It looks at the number of stocks going up [...]
McClellan Financial Publications had an interesting analysis last week (here) that looked at “Tracking the VIX response to Price Moves” in the S&P500. A key conclusion of the analysis was that divergences between the two indexes can signal turning points in the S&P500. The concept seemed a good one – worthy of further investigation. However, rather [...]
Reflecting on the following chart via Pragmatic Capitalism (here) – got to thinking about how the same might apply to Australia: So herewith is the log chart of the All Ordinaries price history since 1875: Now you might argue about the choice of market cycles – I admit to liking the symmetry of ~27 year [...]
It’s interesting that financials and consumer discretionary – the sectors that were most richly rewarded with government support through the crisis – are outperforming the broader index. Still with the financials about to cycle back to the 1950′s (cardigans and crewcuts) and the credit revaluation trade a receding hairline, it’s hard to see this outperformance [...]
The current selloff has the market staggering. Unlike previous tick-downs in the rally since March 2009, fear is making a comeback. Our measures of relative risk appetite have broken out. It’s reason to tread carefully cause until we get some signs of normalisation, further downside is more likely than not: The evidence that it’s a [...]
It’s been notable that volume has been stepping higher on the S&P500: Volume peaks tend to be associated with short to medium bottoms in the index. Similarly, troughs in volume often signal some kind of top. Or course this relationship doesn’t always hold – a wicked example being that 2008 price avalanche where volume peaked [...]
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