Data Diary

Australia, the land of milk and honey, has generally been a pretty cheap place to live.  Plenty of sweeping plains and abundant natural resources have made life a little easier for wave after wave of new settlers to the country. But the current super-cycle resources boom is undermining this privileged state of affairs. Where once [...]

Another month chalked up on the wall, and not much has changed for the little Aussie battler. It is trading around 1.05, just as it was when we last had a look (back on 26 May here) – but the pressure is building for a break one way or another…   All things considered, it [...]

Maybe with the benefit of hindsight the current correction in the Aussie dollar was well overdue. Perhaps it was just dumb luck to double up on our Aussie short the day after its high (here), and let’s face it, timing trades in currencies does involve a generous serving of luck. I’m going to argue it [...]

I remember one frosty new year’s eve in New York – well quite a few years ago now. The trading desks were all but empty, the last revellers dragging their mufflers and ugg boots out the elevators. But on my desk, a heated battle raged still. The fight to determine who was going to set the AUDUSD [...]

We knew that the times were extraordinary – but looking at the rapid ascent of the Aussie dollar this week is enough to get one questioning whether something else is going on. Quickfire movements such as we have seen are uncommon enough events, though the most recent decade seems to have had its fair share. [...]

The unswerving advance of the pacific peso continues to stretch the friendship. Hitting new highs daily – even as the technicals continue to deteriorate. Open interest on the CME also suggests that hedge funds and the like have been jumping onto the long commodities / short USD view once more – the market is overweight [...]

I had my fill of currency trading when I was a kid, so it’s a rare environment that will push me out of the sofa – but the stars are aligning for the commencement of a serious commodity unwind.  We’ve been through the many arguments before – tightening liquidity in China, the impending maturity of [...]

The Aussie has burnt through its stores of glycogen and has been battling against the wall for a month or two now – any progress from here is likely to take a whole lot more effort. That’s not to say it can’t make one final push higher. It is to say that the risk/reward is [...]

Talk round the bundy clock is that hedge funds continue to sidle out of the Australian dollar.  The most recent COT reports seems to confirm this: While leveraged accounts have returned to the AUD after a pre-Christmas sell-off, the declining trend in the size of the positions suggests that conviction is waning in this trade. [...]

The US and Europe are struggling to stave off debt deflation. Excessive leverage has been rolled up from under-capitalized banking systems to the top floor of the sovereign obelisk. There is nowhere else for it to go. The only question left is whether any particular sovereign’s credit is any good – as expressed through the [...]