Data Diary

Follow-up on an earlier post (here) where we suggested that recent moves in currencies were impacting trade flows, Markit (here) reports that world trade was up in October lead by exports from developed economies – and in particular the US. Note that new export orders for Australia, Brazil and Russia were all down for the month. [...]

Ever get the feeling we have reached the end of an era? That maybe the GFC was more than the slipped disc the doctors are suggesting it was. Maybe it really is time to hang-up the hot pants and slip into something more comfortable. We are witnessing the breakdown of the US$ as the world’s [...]

A colleague in the fresh produce trade remarked at the weekend that exports out of the US have surged over recent months. Typically, US producers sell most of their product to the domestic market, but with the US$ plunging relative to Asia, these guys are finding better prices offshore.  If the Fed’s strategy was to [...]

There is something of a speaking-in-tongues fervour about the place recently. Bring back big hair, smelly armpits and the Doobie Brothers I say. We all need a little peace, love and skyrocketing oil prices. (If you want a 1973 vintage backtrack to this post – Jesus is Just Alright here.) To distil a few themes [...]

One further thought following on from our previous post (here) – if the RBA Commodity price index is at record highs, why is it then that industrial metals are trading historically cheap relative to gold? Perhaps it is a reflection of the uncertainty that prevails across the markets.  There has been enough talk about the debasement [...]

The good news keeps on coming – the RBA released its commodity price index yesterday (here): And from the RBA: Over the past year, the index has risen 53 per cent in SDR terms. Much of this rise has been due to increases in iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal export prices, although all components [...]

Australian equities have benefited from two major trends over the last couple of decades (casting aside the credit bubble on the grounds that it hurt).  They are 1) the growth in our compulsory superannuation investment pool and 2) the growth in China’s demand for all things resources.  It’s interesting then to compare and contrast the [...]

The RBA’s commodity price index continues to push on into the hill climbs of the Pyrenees: According to the RBA (here), the key drivers were: Preliminary estimates for July indicate that the index increased by 2.7 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising 2.2 per cent in June (revised). The largest contributors to the [...]

Not quite a random walk, more like the one lurch forward, two staggers back, that is how the market has greeted the ‘news’ that China will be taking the yuan to a crawling peg.  First, risk markets rallied as we all looked inquisitively at each other and asked ‘isn’t this what we wanted?’.  Then with [...]

Time is compressing.  Our collective attention span is contracting.  Memory and imagination are being squeezed.  What are the chances then that governments can act in our long term interest when their constituencies are driven by the here-and-now?  This argument lies at the heart of those that foresee a hypernflationary outburst on the horizon. Some clear [...]