The eye of the storm
Posted on 03 June 2010
After a torrid month of May, risk markets have entered relatively calm waters.
If history is any guide, the 10 day moving average of the CBOE putcall ratio should gravitate towards the 60 level. If we see the daily ratio close in the 40′s then that will be as good a signal as any that optimism has poked its head above the rails.
Similarly, it’d be reasonable to expect that the VIX will track back through to the mid-20′s which has historically proved a pivot point.
Assuming these events come to pass, then the S&P500 should have pushed back to around 1150. In any event, will be interesting to watch how volume evolves over the course of the next few weeks – distribution into a rally would suggest that it’s time to batten down the hatches once again.
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