The topography of a bear market valuation cycle
Posted on 13 May 2010
Another chart for the annals – this one from Sitka Pacific Capital Management (see the original article here).
3 responses to The topography of a bear market valuation cycle
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Sheesh, that implies we’re still looking at this bear market running for 7 to 8 years! Not a very pleasant thought.
Though you would have to say that this time really is different – never before have monetary or fiscal authorities been so ready (or eager) to re-inflate asset bubbles. We’re in the middle of a giant experiment and no-one really knows how it will end (though you don’t have to be a genius to guess that it probably won’t be pretty!).
My working thesis for the last couple years has been a bottom somewhere between 2014 and 2018. So I’ll put the chart down to confirmation bias. Here are a few other ways of aligning and viewing the charts. http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/08/the-great-depression-vs-the-great-bubble/
Never have so many (governments that is) been so ready (with our money – past, present and future) to help so few.
Okay that last bit might be a bit harsh, it only seems like the redistribution of wealth is narrowly focussed – I am sure it is well intentioned. Isn’t it?