Update on S&P500 EPS forecasts
Posted on 15 February 2010
In October, we had a look at Goldman Sachs earnings forecasts for the S&P500 (Giving lemmings a bad name). Figured it was about time that we had an update:
The changes on 2010 forecasts – allowing for the fact that the numbers don’t add up (rounding errors presumably)?
- Energy -$3
- Information technology +$1
- Health Care +$1
- Financials Operating EPS -$2
- Provisions & Writedowns -$1 (ie. less writedowns)
Net the assumed rounding effect, the change in S&P500 EPS ex-P&W was…nothing.
Turning to the 2011 forecasts, the numbers that stand out to me are Energy (+50%), Materials (+50%), and once again Financials (+58%). Higher commodity prices to drive earnings in the energy and materials sectors (go figure). And for the Financials? I thought the 2010 results had the risk revaluation trade to thank (or more correctly, QE) – certainly lending has become a side business as banks hoard cash as seen by the drop in credit and M3. Wonder then what is going to deliver the 2011 gains?
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