World trade – recovery and then what?

Posted on 18 December 2009

World trade continues to recover from the drubbing it took earlier in the year – following is the big picture from the WTO

WTO trade chart

Running through the export and import data by country – USD denominated volumes continued to rise across the board into October (visit the WTO site – World of Warcraft should be worried).

No surprise that the same overall shape is evident in the Baltic Dry Index and Dow transports.

BDI versus $TRAN

The BDI has lead the consistently lead $TRAN over the last 12 months.  With the transports making new highs recently (seemingly confirming the highs in the broader indices), what then to make of the recent pullback in the BDI?  World trade made some sort of near term peak?


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